Climate policy strengthens globally, despite unprecedented contestation in the US and Europe

As countries meet at COP30 in the Amazon, a new Oxford University study gives the most detailed view yet of how different nations’ laws and regulations are aligning – or not – to climate goals. The survey of climate policies across 37 countries (including the whole of the G20) was developed through pro bono partnerships with dozens of leading law firms around the world.  

“Nations and companies have made ambitious climate pledges, but to prevent catastrophic climate change what matters is concrete, implemented, enforceable rules,” says co-lead Professor Thomas Hale at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. “That’s what we’re surveying.”

Since the last survey in 2024, new and strengthened climate policies can be found across the world, especially in Asia and emerging markets. At the same time, the Trump Administration has rolled back climate policies in the US, and the EU has begun to revise or delay climate rules in areas like corporate disclosure, though the outcome of that process remains unclear. 

“In this climate of contestation, climate policy is fragmenting, but even in that fragmented landscape the global direction of travel remains clear and points to transition: the vast majority of nations continue to create and strengthen climate rules in the policy areas we surveyed,” says co-lead Dr Thom Wetzer, Associate Professor at Oxford’s Faculty of Law and Director of the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme. 

Professor Hale adds: “The engine of climate policy has moved to emerging economies. In some regulatory domains, like rules requiring companies to disclose their emissions and other information related to climate change, African and Latin American countries now show higher ambition, on average, than European and North American countries. The US rollback has a real impact, but the long-term trend to transition remains increasingly clear even in the face of unprecedented contestation.”

Overall, however, policies are still insufficient to close the persistent gap between targets and actions, and so prevent catastrophic climate change. While countries, companies and other actors continue to set climate targets – including a 9% rise in company net zero targets in the United States over the last year – global emissions also continue to rise. 

“In four out of the six policy domains examined by our study, fewer than five governments are meeting key benchmarks for policy ambition. More concerning, no jurisdiction has sufficiently ambitious methane policy,” says Professor Hale. 

“Governments need to adopt better climate rules, faster, to align climate policies with the latest science,” says Dr Wetzer. “As countries submit their latest pledges under the Paris Agreement at COP30 in Belem in the Amazon, it is vital they underpin top-level targets with concrete regulations and policies to ensure delivery.”

The study is the second annual report from the Oxford Climate Policy Monitor, a public resource evaluating the ambition, stringency, implementation and comprehensiveness of climate-related regulations against 300+ data points. It evaluates national regulations in six key domains: carbon credits; public procurement; transition planning; methane; climate-related disclosure; green prudential rules.

At COP30, the Monitor’s findings support the work of the UN Taskforce on Net Zero Policy, launched two years ago at COP28, which will issue a major report in Belem to advance efforts to align policy tools to climate goals.

The Monitor’s rich data for 2024/5, which will shortly be open access, show specific areas where regulators can strengthen and align economic rules to create a level playing field and an enabling environment for achieving net zero. The Monitor will be expanded to further domains and jurisdictions going forward. 

The Climate Policy Monitor is one of the outputs of the Oxford Climate Policy Hub, a research initiative based at the University of Oxford. It aims to build the evidence base and the capacity to advance net zero regulation and policy that is effective, rigorous and equitable. It is a collaboration between Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government and the Oxford Sustainable Law Programme (the latter is a joint initiative of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment and Faculty of Law). It is part of the Oxford Net Zero strategic cluster. It was launched in October 2023 as a direct output of the Oxford Martin Programme on Climate Policy with a £1m strategic funding grant from the Oxford Martin School. It is also supported by the EU Horizon ACHIEVE Project.